outbound-math

Use this when setting targets or headcount. It shows what a number actually requires, and which conversion rate to improve before adding people.

Inputs

• Target: new revenue (or pipeline) for the period, and how much should come from outbound.
• Rates: win rate, average deal size, held meeting to opportunity, booked to held, positive reply to booked, positive reply rate per contact. Measured if possible; otherwise labelled assumptions.
• Team: SDRs and AEs, and their realistic capacity.

The play

1. Run the reverse funnel

Outbound revenue target              $600,000 per quarter
÷ average deal size ($20,000)        = 30 deals won
÷ win rate (25%)                     = 120 opportunities
÷ meeting → opportunity (50%)        = 240 meetings held
÷ show rate (80%)                    = 300 meetings booked
÷ positive reply → booked (60%)      = 500 positive replies
÷ positive reply rate (1.5%)         = 33,333 contacts per quarter
÷ 13 weeks                           = 2,564 new contacts per week

2. Convert to daily activity

Contacts per week × touches per contact ÷ 5 = touches per day across the team. Divide by reps for activity per rep, and compare with what one rep can do well (for example 50-80 new contacts a week with personalization).

3. Check headcount and capacity

Reps needed = contacts per week ÷ realistic contacts per rep per week. AEs needed = meetings per week ÷ meetings one AE can hold well (typically 8-15).

4. Check market size

Contacts per year vs reachable contacts in the ICP. If the plan needs 130,000 contacts a year and the ICP has 25,000, the plan is impossible as written.

5. Show the levers

Recalculate with each rate improved by a realistic step. Usually positive reply rate and meeting-to-opportunity rate change the answer most. Example: 1.5% → 2.5% positive replies cuts required contacts by 40%.

Output format

Target → deals → opportunities → meetings held → booked → positive replies → contacts
Per week: contacts N | touches N | per rep N
Headcount: SDRs N (have N) | AEs N (have N)
Market check: N contacts/year vs N reachable → OK / exhausts in N months
Levers: <rate change → contacts needed>
Assumptions: <which rates are measured vs assumed>

What good looks like

• Every rate is labelled measured or assumed.
• The plan is checked against both capacity and market size.
• The answer recommends the lever to improve before the hire to make.
• The common mistake is solving a target with activity alone ("send 3x more"), which burns the market and the domains.

Rules

• MUST label assumed rates and use conservative ones.
• MUST check the plan against the reachable market.
• NEVER present the output as a forecast; it is a requirement model.

Example prompts

• "We need $1.2M in new ARR from outbound this year. What activity does that take?"
• "How many SDRs do we need for 200 meetings a quarter?"
• "Which conversion rate should we improve first to hit target without hiring?"